Your GPS Recalculates. Do You?


Welcome to the "The Catalyst," Kevin Noble's weekly newsletter about becoming a more effective leader.

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Quick Note

Hey y’all,

Do you know your enneagram number?

I’d heard about enneagrams before, but had never learned my own. Last week the book “The Road Back to You” popped out to me on my Kindle backlog, so I started reading it.

There’s no quiz in the book, but reviewing some of the statements, I came to generate hypotheses for what type I might be. Then I decided to ask ChatGPT if it had a guess as to my type.

We both had the same conclusion: Type 1, the Reformer. Rational and idealistic.

video preview

(Above is a one minute video on Type 1 by the co-founder of the Enneagram Institute - check out the other Type videos)

Surprising no one who has worked with me before, using quotes from this page on Type 1, I’m:
- conscientious and ethical
- always striving to improve things
- well-organized, orderly, and fastidious
- …but can slip into being critical and perfectionistic 👋
- …and have problems with impatience 🙂

It was really fun going back and forth with AI about my type. I had it quiz me and consider other types. I shared anecdotes. I asked questions. By the end we’d gained confidence, that yes, for sure, Type 1.

At one point it suggested for growth that I “Try intentionally leaving things slightly undone or non-optimized…” and my brain was like, “Oh no!” I guess that confirms it is indeed a growth opportunity 🤣

Whether you know your type or not, you’d probably have a good time getting an LLM to interview you about it. My prompt was really simple; sharing it below.

I’m reading a book on enneagrams. I’ve never engaged with this work before. I saw myself in a few of the enneagrams, so I’m not sure what my classification might be.
Based on what you know about me, do you have a guess as to my enneagram number?

My wife also shared this enneagram quiz if you wanted to explore it that way.

I’d love to hear your type and what you learned. Reply and share if you end up exploring it!

Have fun!

Kevin

A Quote

We can’t just bemoan the darkness of this world we live in. We have to search for the light. We have to be the light. For our nearest neighbors. For one another.
Ryan Holiday in "Courage is Calling"

Three Things

1 - 🤯 Lenny’s Newsletter Subscription Bonuses
If you sign up for the $200 annual subscription to Lenny’s Newsletter you get a free year of a bunch of awesome tools: Bolt, Cursor, Lovable, Replit, V0, Linear, Notion, Perplexity Pro, Superhuman, and Granola. The ROI is pretty insane given that each of those tools costs more than the newsletter subscription. As an aside, Substack data shows Lenny has 20K paid subscribers at $200 each - that’s $4M per year. Damn!

2 - 🏢 Roam
I’ve been using this “office of the future” software for a work project for the past month, and it’s quite good! For $10.50/user/month you get a virtual office, video conferencing, messaging, and a lot of other remote-first features. Seeing everyone in the office map creates a sense of aliveness that’s hard to get working remotely. I’ve been using the office knock, then audio pop-in, quite a bit for those quick chats; much better than scheduling a meeting sometime in the future.

3 - 📉 Tariff Stuff
I like taking in long form content to understand ideas. Given all the tariff stuff going on (…then off, on, and off 🙂) in the US, here are some of the things I've been engaging with: Bankless podcast on the Macro Situation, and Capital Allocators podcast. Morgan Housel article. Noah Smith articles (1, 2, 3). The “Principle for Dealing with a Changing World Order” book is also a really good resource on the bigger picture.

This week we continue our focus on the important (and invisible!) forces behind making great decisions: Cognitive Biases.
Each newsletter in this series will explore a few specific biases that unconsciously derail judgment, along with tools to spot and counter them.
The series will look like this:
Biases that Distort Decision-Making (link)
Biases that Ride on Emotions (link)
Biases in Social Contexts (link)
This week: Biases that Block Learning
Week 6: Complex Systems and Lollapalooza Effects

(enjoy this 7️⃣ minute read)

Deep Dive on Biases that Block Learning

Is there something getting in the way of your growth without you realizing it?

This week we’re exploring the subtle, self-protective mental shortcuts that quietly block your ability to learn.

These biases have you walking tall, confident you’re on course - even when you’re heading straight off a cliff.

Leaders Must Learn

Every interaction is an opportunity to learn.

Learning drives performance. As you improve, your capacity grows, and so does your ability to take on bigger, more meaningful problems.

But there are biases that short-circuit the feedback loop. Instead of giving you accurate information, they give you a distorted view of reality. Your ego intercepts the real signal and whispers, “You’re amazing,” no matter what the data says.

Without accurate feedback, you can’t improve. You’ll take the wrong lessons, or none at all. That doesn't necessarily mean your performance will plateau - it could get worse.

These biases don’t just block your growth, they stunt your team’s development, too.

You Model Learning for Your Team

You set the tone for how reflection and learning are done in your organization. If you aren’t honest about what really caused a result, your team won’t be either. (Remember, your org. looks like you)

That means you’re not just blocking your learning, you’re building a system that protects ego instead of improving outcomes.

Customers aren’t going to stick around for a company that doesn’t improve outcomes. They don’t care how your ego feels, only what results you deliver.

When you trade truth for comfort, you trade long-term competitiveness for short-term feel-goods.

So for the sake of your growth, your team’s growth, and your customers’ results, here are four learning-blocking biases every leader should be watching for.

The Anti-Bias Toolkit: Part 4

If you want to see the world as it is and get the feedback you need to improve, watch out for these four biases: consistency bias, hindsight bias, outcome bias, and the self-serving bias.

Let’s break them down:

1️⃣ Consistency Bias

What it is: We stick to previous beliefs, decisions, or identities to appear consistent, even when new information should change our mind.

Examples:
- You defend a past strategy you argued for, even though it’s not working.
- You keep investing in a project because you committed to it, not because it’s still the right call.
- You avoid admitting you were wrong because it feels like it undermines your credibility.

Why it matters:
- It can feel safer to defend your old thinking than admit you’re seeing things differently.
- It resists change in the name of stability.
- It turns learning into a threat to your identity instead of a tool for growth.

How to spot it:
Ask yourself:
- “Would I still believe this if I weren’t the one who said it last time?”
- “Am I resisting change to stay consistent, or because it’s still right?”
- “What would I tell someone else in my shoes?”
Also look for:
- Feeling defensive when challenged on a past decision.
- Feeling a surge of relief when the group stops debating and defaults back to your original path.
- Letting your past self override your present evidence.

How to counter it:
- Name a pivot: Say out loud that changing your mind is a strength, not a flaw.
- Reframe consistency: Align with your values, not just your past decisions.
- Start fresh: Make the choice for the first time with today’s information, ignoring your past position.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
- Paul Samuelson, crediting thinking from John Maynard Keynes

2️⃣ Hindsight Bias

What it is: Once you know how something turned out, it feels obvious in retrospect, so you rewrite the past to fit the present.

Examples:
- You say, “I knew that was going to happen,” even if you didn’t act on it at the time.
- You forget how uncertain or complex the situation felt before you saw the result.
- You critique a failed project as if the risks were obvious, even though you didn’t raise concerns at the time.

Why it matters:
- It distorts your memory of what you actually knew.
- It erases the uncertainty that was present at the time.
- It makes you overconfident about your judgment, and underprepared for uncertainty the next time.

How to spot it:
Ask yourself:
- “Did I actually know that then, or does it just seem obvious now?”
- “What information did I have at the time, and what was missing?”
- “How did I feel about the decision before the outcome was revealed?”
Also look for:
- Narratives that are too clean or feel too inevitable.
- Feeling embarrassed by a reasonable decision just because it didn’t work out.
- Overconfidence creeping into your postmortem.

How to counter it:
- Document the now: Keep records of your reasoning in real time.
- Replay the uncertainty: Revisit how much was unknown at the moment.
- Use premortems: Imagine different outcomes before they happen.

3️⃣ Outcome Bias

What it is: We judge the quality of a decision by its result, rather than the soundness of the thinking that led to it.

Examples:
- A leader takes huge risks that work out, and is feted, even if the process was awful.
- You launch a product without testing, and it succeeds, so you skip validation next time too.
- You skip prep for a big meeting, and it runs smoothly, so you treat prep as optional going forward.

Why it matters:
- It rewards bad thinking if you get lucky. It punishes good thinking if you get unlucky.
- You take away the wrong lessons, which compounds over time.

How to spot it:
Ask yourself:
- “Would I feel the same way about this decision if the outcome had been different?”
- “Did I evaluate the risks, assumptions, and logic at the time - or just guess?”
- “What does the result actually say about the process?”
Also look for:
- Quick judgments based only on success or failure.
- Pride or shame tied solely to results.
- Neglecting to analyze the decision because the outcome “speaks for itself.”

How to counter it:
- Evaluate separately: Assess the process and the outcome individually.
- Study near misses: Learn from close calls, not just wins or losses.

4️⃣ Self-Serving Bias

What it is: We credit ourselves for success, but blame external factors for failure.

Examples:
- You take pride in landing a client, but blame the economy when one leaves.
- You think, “I succeeded because I’m good” and “I failed because of circumstances.”
- You ace a presentation and credit your preparation, then bomb one and blame the audience, the tech, or bad luck.

Why it matters:
- It creates blind spots around your role in outcomes.
- It distorts your self-assessment and slows growth.
- It turns failure into something to dodge rather than something to mine for insight.

How to spot it:
Ask yourself:
- “How would I explain this if I were giving credit or blame to someone else?”
- “What did I contribute to this failure or success?”
- “Would I give someone else the same credit/blame I’m giving myself?”
Also look for:
- Excuses that show up quickly after failure.
- Overconfidence or over-attribution in success stories.
- Discomfort when others suggest your actions played a role in a negative outcome.

How to counter it:
- Own both sides: When you succeed, name at least one external factor. When you fail, name at least one internal one.
- Lead with curiosity: Start postmortems by asking, “What didn’t go how I expected?”
- Track your patterns: Are you the hero in all your wins and a bystander in the losses?

Bringing it All Together

Each of these four biases - consistency bias, hindsight bias, outcome bias, and self-serving bias - distorts your ability to learn from experience.

They filter out the uncomfortable truths. They help you preserve your current self-image, at the cost of your future improvement.

Spotting these patterns in yourself isn’t about guilt or overcorrection - it’s about staying intellectually open and honest.

The people who grow fastest aren’t the ones who were right all along. They’re the ones who learned quickly, adjusted often, and were willing to see the world as it is.

Call to Action

This week, see if you can notice when your learning gets blocked - not by a lack of information, but by your interpretation of it.

Can you hear your ego whispering in your ear during a failure? If you hear yourself saying “I’m amazing,” it might be true - but it might be worth getting a second opinion 🤣

As you reflect on what’s working (or not) at work, bring in someone with fresh eyes. Ask if they see it the same way you do.

Don’t let your ego block your learning.

Kevin

PS - Which of the four biases nailed you this week? Hit reply and share. This is a judgment-free zone - unless you’re always the hero in your retros 😄.

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